The D.C. area is in the midst of a very warm start to November. Through the first four days of the month, the city is running 5.4 degrees warmer than normal. And the warmest weather is still to come.

Is this really a special occasion? As usual, that answer is a bit complicated, but it’s probably best to summarize as ‘somewhat’ unusual – maybe a once a decade occurrence.



Warmest temperature in November by year at D.C. since 1872.

D.C.’s high temperature of 75 degrees on Wednesday is already the warmest November temperature the city has seen since 2007 when it was a toasty 77.

Of course, looking at recent history, the past few years have had coolish “warmest November temperatures.” The 30-year November average ending last year calls for a typical maximum temperature of 74.6 degrees. Rounded up, exactly what we saw yesterday.

And while 70-degree days become less common as we progress through November, D.C. has averaged 3.6 of them over the month over the same 30-year span ending last year.



Temperature departures through the first few days of November. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)

Speaking of last year, during a chilly November overall — one which saw the temperature drop to 22 on the 19th — D.C. managed a 74 degree high on November 24. 70s themselves aren’t too crazy. They can pop up any time of year under the right conditions.

Things become more interesting once we start stringing 70-degree days together during the cool season. Two days in a row isn’t too uncommon, especially to open the month. It last happened in 2013 on November 1-2.

To get to three 70-degree days in row in November, it’s a further journey into the past. The last instance was November 9 through 11 in 2006. The warmest temperature of that stretch was only 74.

We have a pretty good shot at pulling off four 70+ days in a row this go, something that hasn’t been done in the city since 2003 when the first five days of the month opened with readings that warm or warmer.



80 degree days in November at D.C. There are none in December.

While hitting 70 in November is common, reaching 80 degrees is a much more unusual occurrence. In D.C., there have only been 21 80-degree days in November over 143 years of temperature record-keeping. That’s out of 4,290 days. Roughly a half a percent of November days.

The overwhelming number of 80 degrees have occurred early in the month, with 17 having happened by the 5th.

The last time D.C. hit 80+ in November occurred back in 2003. The last El Nino year with such an occurrence was 1982, when it hit 82 on the 1st and 80 on the 2nd.

There are no 80-degree days on record later than November 18 (80 in 1921) and prior to February 25 (84 in 1930). Picking one up Friday would make it the 5th latest instance on record. If somehow we can reach 83 it would tie for the warmest temperature so late in the year with 1993, though it happened on Nov. 15 that year.



Potential for record temperatures as per NWS forecast for Friday. (Weatherbell.com)

If you’re tracking potential records with us at home, Friday’s targets follow:

D.C.’s record high for November 6 is 78 set back in 1948. The record warm low is 65 in 1938.

At Dulles (IAD), the record high mark is also 78 and set most recently in 1994. The record warm low there is 61 in 2003.

At BWI, the record high is 77 reached most recently in 2005. The record warm low is 63 in 1938.

The record highs seem more likely to be threatened than the record warm lows.

The good thing about November heat waves? They generally just bring pleasant weather. History has also shown that many Novembers with atypically warm days don’t end up strikingly warm on the whole. Enjoy it while it lasts!?