This Week In Boxing: February 20–21

a c Blocked Unblock Follow Following Feb 17, 2015

It’s been a while since I’ve gone over the ratings system for fights. Each fight will feature two ratings. First an entertainment rating and secondly an importance rating. I figure this will help you decide which fights deserve priority this weekend. Here’s the rating system for the entertainment rating.

★★★★★ Hagler-Hearns, Gatti-Ward

★★★★ Rios-Alvarado, Crawford-Gamboa

★★★ Pacquiao-Bradley 2, Marquez-Alvarado

★★ Brook-Porter, Khan-Collazo

★ Alexander-Bradley, Canelo-Lara

☟ will be the symbol for 0 star fights. Think Vazquez-Bey and Fury-Chisora.

★★★★★ Lineal title on the line, unifications, #1 vs #2 rated

★★★★ Superstars/major draws, top 10 prospects, title shots

★★★ Title eliminators, regular/interim title fights, prospects making a step up, 2 fighters ranked in the top 10

★★ Prospects, top 10 fighters in action, equally matched fights featuring contenders

★ Mismatches, showcases, irrelevant fighters who don’t have contender status

☟ if i’m writing about a fight and this is the importance rating, you know I have no life.

I do reserve the right to be flexible with each rating. Meaning some fights will be rated a little higher than you’d think if it’s a fight leading up to something big further down the road.

[lead]Friday February 20[/lead]

From Turning Stone Resort & Casino, Verona, New York

Time: 6:00 PM PST, 9:00 PM EST, 2:00 AM GMT

TV: ESPN2 (US)

Donovan Dennis 10(8)-1 vs Steve Vukosa 10(4)-0

6 rounds

heavyweight division

2015 Boxcino Quaterfinals

Donovan Dennis enters the tournament with a nice record, but at a major disadvantage. He’s already been knocked out once and it was by another guy participating in the tournament. If we want to be optimistic we can say he’s a big southpaw coming off a unanimous decision win. He was an okay amateur and has what I think is the easiest opponent of any combatant in the tournament. Vukosa is 38 and after a decent start to his career in 2001 had a long layoff. He returned to the ring last summer after 12 years of being away. Dennis has fought consistently and should be in better shape to take Vukosa out easily.

Entertainment rating: ★★ Importance rating: ★★

Razvan Cojanu 12(7)-1 vs Ed Fountain 10(4)-0

6 rounds

heavyweight division

2015 Boxcino Quaterfinals

Cojanu could easily win this whole thing. He’s 6’7 and his lone loss came in his professional debut where he lost a majority decision to an experienced fighter. One thing to like about Cojanu is that his record isn’t full of early KO’s. What he does have are a lot of fights where he goes deep and stops his opponents after working them. His win over Manuel Pucheta last summer earned him the WBO Asia Pacific heavyweight title.

Fountain has the undefeated record, but don’t be fooled. Six of his ten opponents had 5 of fewer fights.

Entertainment rating: ★★ Importance rating: ★★

Andrey Fedosov 25(20)-3 vs Nat Heaven 9(7)-1

6 rounds

heavyweight division

2015 Boxcino Quaterfinals

Nat Heaven followed up his knockout of fellow Boxcino tournament participate Donovan Dennis by facing 15–15 Stacy Frazier. Frazier was coming off 5 straight losses and looked like he was about to make it 6. It didn’t quite go down like that as Frazier scored a first round upset knockout of Heaven.

Fedosov is the clear favorite in this tournament. Just like we saw with the lightweight tournament, it’s the experienced guys that really thrive against the inexperienced of oft-beaten opponents. Fedosov has gone rounds with high quality opposition and scored some good wins himself.

Entertainment rating: ★★ Importance rating: ★★★

Mario Heredia 9(7)-1 vs Lenroy Thomas 18(9)-3

6 rounds

heavyweight division

2015 Boxcino Quaterfinals

If you’ve made it this far into the Boxcino previews, good job. Time for some opinion. The concept of a tournament is fascinating in boxing, but I’m not entirely sold on them in this format. It accomplishes one nice thing in that fighters are forced to get in the ring with each other, but doesn’t always feature the most talented fighters in the final. For all it’s criticism, the Super Six was a boxing tournament done right… in theory. Obviously, the arrangement and details of that tournament style make it difficult to pull off, but if it was easy it wouldn’t be boxing.

Entertainment rating: ★★ Importance rating: ★★

[hr gap=””]From CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Time: 7:00 PM PST, 10:00 PM EST, 3:00 AM GMT

TV: Showtime (US)

Sammy Vasquez 17(13)-0 vs Emmanuel Lartei Lartey 16(7)-2–1

10 rounds

welterweight division

The first time I saw Vasquez and heard about his two-tours of Iraq as a member of the United States Army I thought this was more of a publicity thing than an actual talent thing. That Vasquez’s experience in Iraq made for a good story on TV. I dug into his past and saw that he was an accomplished amateur. It made me hopeful, but the story was too strong and I was skeptical of him.

Then I saw him fight. All of my hesitation to give him credit disappeared. I saw a poised and skilled tactician. There were certainly flaws as you expect to see with a young prospect, but there was also clear moments where Vasquez looked like something special. If you wanted to compare him to someone, you’d go with a mix of Keith Thurman and Carl Froch. He’s unorthodox enough to get the Carl Froch comparison and when you see how he leads and punches, you’ll see the Thurman in him.

What’s next for Vasquez’s development is head movement. He is stagnant when he punches and has been hit with many big shots so far in his career. His chin and his power have been sufficient enough to keep him from getting dropped or knocked out, but as he rises it will become more difficult. Vasquez is promising and if he can dispose of Lartey, it would be a massive statement. Errol Spence Jr, the best welterweight prospect in boxing, couldn’t put Lartey away. If Vasquez does it, you have to start considering Vasquez for a top 20 position in the division.

Entertainment rating: ★★★ Importance rating: ★★

Argenis Mendez 21(11)-3–1 vs Daniel Evangelista Jr 17(13)-4–1

10 rounds

super featherweight division

There is a strong argument that Mendez has lost his last three fights. He clearly lost a decision to Barthelemy last July, he also was clearly by Barthelemy before that even though it was ruled a no decision, and Usmanee might have done enough on some cards to have earned a win. At 28, Mendez is facing a lot of tough questions already.

Mendez began as a promising prospect. He had a deep amateur career and though he’d lost to both Guillermo Rigondeaux and Juan Manuel Lopez, he had enough regional titles to at least point to what could be future success. An early loss in his second year as a pro was the beginning of Mendez’s undoing.

Mendez’s style is hard to pinpoint and that might be his problem. He doesn’t do anything extraordinarly well he’s paid the price. Evangelista Jr looks like a good solid test for Mendez, but his wins have all come against inexperienced opponents. Expect Mendez to look spectacular and work his way back toward a title shot.

Entertainment rating: ★★ Importance rating: ★★

[lead]Saturday February 21[/lead]

From 02 World Arena, Kreuzberg, Berlin, Germany

Time: 12:00 PM PST, 3:00 PM EST, 8:00 PM GMT

TV: Sky (UK) SAT1 (Germany)

Arthur Abraham 41(28)-4 vs Paul Smith 35(20)-4

12 rounds

WBO world super middleweight title

Super middleweight is a division like the heavyweight, welterweight, and super bantamweight division. There is one clear cut champion who is head and shoulders above the rest and there are the rest. Of the rest, there are a few titles holders who consider themselves champions of the field, but not of the division. Andre Ward is that champion of the super middleweight division.

Last September, Eddie Hearn got Paul Smith a titleshot against Germany’s champion and it seemed like it was a nice gesture by the promoter, but one that would ultimately fail. Smith had never looked like he belonged on the world stage and while Abraham had never gotten a significant win on that level he was always competitive.

The fight that ensued was the one we dreaded, but knew wouldn’t happen. It was the close fight where the German judges got to… be German judges. My recollection of the bout was that neither fighter had a strong case for victory. 7 rounds to either fighter was about as wide as I could possible see it while still being fair. Somehow the judges watched a different fight because they had Abraham winning 9 and 11 rounds. Despite the poor scoring, there was one takeaway from that fight which is crucial to the rematch. The Arthur Abraham that finished that fight was one I’d never seen. He was hurt, tired, and lethargic as the fight came to a close. Abraham had never looked like that before and that’s with fights against Andre Ward, Carl Froch, and Andre Dirrell. Smith on the other hand looked refreshed and like a fighter who’d finally at long last graduated form the domestic level.

There are a few explains and theories I have.

First: Abraham is going to easily win this fight. Why? It’s simple, but first we have to explain the first fight’s lack of success for Abraham (in spite of the scorecards.) I think Abraham took a look at Smith and his record and realized this was going to be easy. Smith, as you read earlier, had never scored a win above the domestic level. In fact, when he even approached the higher level of domestic he was stopped or plainly beaten. Abraham likely underestimated Smith. Smith gave the performance of his lifetime and got lucky a la George Groves. Except the luck was only that he was competitive and not wiped out quickly.

Second: Smith will win this fight because Abraham has finally turned that corner. He’s no longer the consistent Abraham who could easily outwork any opponent that wasn’t an elite talent. Abraham for the first time looked old, while Paul Smith had entered a new stage in his career. Smith, with his brothers who are each talented in their own right, could be making that next step in his progression as a fighter. It’s likely that Smith will take what he learned in the first fight and come back even stronger against an aging champion.

Those are the cases you could make if you wanted to believe that Smith is going to win, but I don’t buy it. I had Abraham winning the first time and this rematch is likely only taking place because of the ridiculous 11–1 scorecard. If we take that away, it was a close and competitive fight. It also doesn’t help that nobody gave Smith a chance. Being competitive and lasting 12 rounds was enough for some people to instantly declare Smith the winner.

With a newly refocused Abraham as well as the fight taking place in Germany again, there’s very little chance Paul Smith was anything more than a nice story.

Entertainment rating: ★★★ Importance rating: ★★★

David Price 18(15)-2 vs Irineu Beato Costa Junior 16(14)-2

10 rounds

heavyweight division

David “Twice” Price’s return after losing to Tony Thompson has been impressive if you’re looking for quick knockouts and a UD over an overmatched opponent. If you’re looking for something more substantial, you’ll still be looking. The questions there are about Price aren’t likely to be answered against Costa Jr. Price had worked himself up to the European level prior to getting stopped twice by Tony Thompson and this is still a domestic battle.

Entertainment rating: ★★ Importance rating: ★[hr gap=””]

From Salle des Etoiles, Monte Carlo, Monaco

Time: 2:45 PM PST, 5:45 PM EST, 10:45 PM GMT

TV: HBO (US) Channel 5 (UK) Azteca (Mexico) Sport 1 (Hungary) RPC Channel 4 (Panama) Main Event (Australia)

Note: HBO will only show the main event. If you hope to catch the rest of the card, tune in at 11:30 AM PST, 2:30 PM EST, 7:30 PM GMT.

Gennady Golovkin 31(28)-0 vs Martin Murray 29(12)-1–1

12 rounds

WBA super world middleweight title

IBO world middleweight title

interim WBC world middleweight title

Trying to come up with some way to preview Gennady Golovkin’s upcoming fight with Martin Murray is easy. Golovkin has made it that way. His last 18 fights have all ended the same way. Of the 232 possible rounds he could have boxed, he’s only had a willing opponent for 74 of them. It’s purely a numbers game at this point. But what about Martin Murray’s people? What is Murray’s case and why should this be any different? How would someone close to Murray preview this fight?

Martin Murray isn’t like those other opponents who lost before their walk-in music started playing. No, Murray has been on big stages (probably bigger than Golovkin has been) and met the challenge each time. The 2 blemishes on his record stand, but there’s a strong argument you could make for Martin Murray being an undefeated fighter. Certainly he’s never been defeated in the way Miguel Cotto has been. His one loss came to Sergio Martinez in Argentina which equates to a draw against Felix Sturm in Germany. And a draw against Felix Sturm in Germany is like a win… oh wait, Murray does have a draw against Sturm in Germany. That means that Murray beat Sturm in actuality, and that his fight with Martinez was as close as it gets and depending on who you ask he probably won. If you look at the fight stats, Murray did land a greater number of punches at a more accurate rate. (If I wasn’t such a Martinez fan I’d tell you that Murray won, but I’m not doing that.)

Murray has never been down in his career and while he doesn’t pack a lot of power, Sergio Martinez was down twice against him. (Only one of the knockdowns counted.) Murray has been criminally underrated for the duration of his career and it’s mostly due to past trouble which made it difficult for him to get a visa to fight in America as well as a couple of ill-advised moves on the promotional level.

The truth is, it’s not easy to make a case for Martin Murray. The fact that he’s taken elite or very good fighters 12 rounds is nice, but the same could have been said Matthew Macklin and Daniel Geale. We made the mistake of thinking those guys were the real challenges for Golovkin and were wrong both times. In fact, the argument is even more difficult now despite Murray being just as good if not a better fighter than Macklin and Geale. Murray is a poor style match for Golovkin. Sure, his defense is solid and he protects himself pretty well from being hit, but how long is that going to work against a creative offensive like Golovkin? How is that high guard going to work when Golovkin is mixing punches from head to body with an unpredictable rhythm?

You’d be a fool to pick against Golovkin and it would be unlikely that Murray can last 12 rounds. That’s just what the numbers and past dictates. Maybe Martin Murray can have his special moment. Maybe he can erase the past and show something in those late rounds where he’s faltered before… if he can make it to the late rounds.

A win for Golovkin will widen the gap between the real king of the division and the pack. Though Golovkin doesn’t actually wear the crown.

Another point altogether is that Golovkin doesn’t even hold a legitimate title. The WBA title is a variation of about 4 different titles, the IBO hasn’t been legitimate in a long time, and the interim WBC title is just insurance in case Cotto drops back down to 154 pounds. How bizarre is that?

Entertainment rating: ★★★★ Importance rating: ★★★★

Hekkie Budler 27(9)-1 vs Jesus Silvestre 30(22)-5

12 rounds

WBA world minimumweight title

IBO world minimumweight title

Since Francisco Rodriguez Jr left the minimumweight division last winter, Budler has emerged as the new number one minimumweight in the world. He’d recently come into his own with power and while he beat Xiong Zhao Zhong on the cards, the win wasn’t as dominant as Budler had recently been. That paved the way for Wanheng Menayothin to take the reigns and enter the top spot in the division.

You’d be wrong gif you figured that Budler doesn’t have enough personal pride to try to fix this injustice. A win against Jesus Silvestre won’t move the needle for him in terms of taking back the number one spot in the division. What it will do, however, is set up a fight against Menayothin to determine who the number one fighter in the division is. That’s something worth getting excite dover and it’s a possible fight of the year contender. Other options for Budler include, though from what I hear he’s not interested, traveling to Japan and facing Katsunari Takayama. It would be a way to unify titles in the division, but Budler has been hesitant to fight outside of South Africa or Monaco.

Entertainment rating: ★★★★ Importance rating: ★★★★

Hughie Fury 14(8)-0 vs Andriy Rudenko 24(16)-1

10 rounds

heavyweight division

Prior to falling ill last summer and taking a long hiatus from the sport while getting better, Fury sat in my top 10 list of prospects the sport. Fury is just as big as his cousin Tyson and far less clumsy. Where Tyson lacks fluidity and subtlety, Hughie has it in spades. He’s a big man who fights like a little man and does it well. It’s good to see Fury back and for those of you worried about the record of his opponent, fear not. Rudenko is only 6’0” and is coming off a 12 round loss to Lucas Browne. Fury is 6’6” and would stop Browne tomorrow. Look for Hughie to make a statement this Saturday.

Entertainment rating: ★★ Importance rating: ★★★★