On paper, if there was ever a game to expect the Giants to come out and play well, today was the day. Following yesterday’s loss in which they managed just 1 run and 5 hits, the Giants appeared to be in a good situation with Jason Hammel on the mound, who came into today with a 2-6 record and 5.43 ERA. While he had pitched better over his last 3 starts (all of which came at home), Hammel had struggled mightily on the road, sporting an 0-3 record with a 6.43 ERA and .330 batting average against. Furthermore, for the first time in a long time, the Giants had 7 of their 8 starters healthy and in the lineup to combine with a red-hot Austin Slater and ace Johnny Cueto on the mound.

However, as the Giants have done so often this season, the Giants made a mediocre-at-best pitcher look like a Cy Young Award candidate as they managed to score just 1 run off Hammel over 6.2 innings. With the 9th inning run they scratched across, the Giants have now overtaken the Padres as the lowest scoring team in all of Major League Baseball at 3.6 runs per game.

Things don’t get any easier for the Giants as they head to Colorado to face a Rockies team that is 41-26 on the season, and have 3 players (Mark Reynolds, Charlie Blackmon, and Nolan Arenado) who have at least 14 homeruns and 46 RBIs. By contrast, the Giants don’t have a single hitter who has reached the 30-RBI plateau and only 1 who has more than 8 homeruns.

Takeaways from Today

1.Where is Mark Melancon?

Back on June 8th, I wrote about the importance of finding ways to get Mark Melancon work without the Giants presenting consistent save opportunities. Melancon, as has been his MO, is a pitcher who needs to pitch consistently to stay sharp, yet he has not pitched a single inning since blowing a save a week ago. Over the last month, Melancon has now pitched a total of 6.2 innings. The most eye-popping statistic? Melancon has pitched 7 more innings on the season for the Giants that Neil Ramirez, a reliever who hasn’t been with the club since April 29th.

For a team whose priority has shifted from buyers to sellers weeks ago, I’m amazed the Giants have refused to use Melancon in non-save situations. In doing so, not only has their biggest bullpen asset become their least utilized, he’s getting rustier with each passing day that he doesn’t see game action. Melancon has the rare ability to alter the trajectory of a minor league system by himself (similar to the way Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller did a year ago), but only if the Giants effectively maximize his value leading up to the deadline.

The only reasoning that I can see behind preserving Melancon is either 1) he’s not completely healthy, or 2) the Giants are not considering moving him. Hopefully neither is the case because if a team like the Nationals, who may be a closer away from a World Championship, come calling at the deadline and are desperate (which they are), the Giants could get a massive return for a player whose performance is more-or-less irrelevant in the overall goal for 2017.

2. Nunez’s Value Skyrocketing

Contrary to Melancon’s plummeting value, Eduardo Nunez’s is skyrocketing. Just over a month ago on May 12th, Nunez went 1-5 against the Reds, lowering his batting average to a season-low .246 and looking like a piece the Giants would be fortunate to get anything out of. Following a day off on the 13th, Nunez immediately caught fire, and has boosted his trade value ever since. With 2 more hits today, Nunez is now batting .301 on the season and stands amongst the league leaders in batting average (16th), hits (8th), doubles (17), and stolen bases (4th). With a strong 3 weeks, Nunez could find himself in consideration for his 2nd straight All-Star game – certainly a long shot, but quite impressive considering where he was a month ago.

With his strong play, the Giants should be able to receive a healthy return for Nunez. Some have suggested the desire to re-sign him, but with Christian Arroyo the 3rd baseman of the future, and Crawford, Panik, and Belt firmly planted as everyday infielders, Nunez wouldn’t have the opportunity to play his primary position. From Nunez’s perspective, the upcoming free agency will be likely be his last shot at a healthy payday, and in coming off back-to-back solid seasons, he’ll have plenty of attractive offers from competitive clubs. With that in mind, the Giants need to be sure that they maximize the return on a player who will likely leave in the offseason anyway.

3. Cueto’s Performance Putting Giants in a Tough Spot

After surrendering 10 hits and 5 runs to the Royals over 5.2 innings, Cueto is trending in the wrong direction for a team who needs him to pitch well. Unlike Eduardo Nunez, Cueto has pitched very poorly over the past month, going 1-3 with a 4.66 ERA (17th worst of all NL starters). Perhaps most concerning over the last month is the 10.8% soft-contact percentage (2nd worst in the NL) that Cueto is inducing, versus a 37.4% hard-contact percentage (8th worst in the NL) surrendered. If we compare those numbers to all of 2016, Cueto induced soft-contact 19.4% of the time (8th best in the NL) and surrendered a hard-hit ball only 27.2% of the time (6th best in the NL).

Regardless the reason, no team is going to part with elite prospects (as originally hoped) for a pitcher who either A) isn’t completely healthy (Cueto has been prone to repeated blister-issues), or B) isn’t pitching well for an extended period of time.

With his recent performance, Cueto has put the Giants in a tough spot. The Giants can’t just give Cueto away without a significant return, so based on his performance, there is a chance the Giants are forced to hang onto him. If that is the case, Cueto is essentially in charge of his own destiny. If he turns his season around and pitches will in the 2nd half, Cueto can opt out of his contract with the Giants and sign elsewhere for more money, leaving the Giants with nothing. If he continues to pitch poorly and initiates the start of his performance decline at age 32, Cueto can opt in to his contract, forcing the Giants to pay him $21 million per year until 2022 when Cueto is 36.

As a Giants fan, I think all we can do is cross our fingers that Cueto pitches well enough over the next 3 weeks to at least stabilize his value. At that time, we have to hope that a team like the Astros or Yankees (who have significant minor league depth) will value short term pitching depth and a World Series Championship run over long term prospect development.

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