Before you rag on the Nationals too hard for being the silver medalists of every offseason, coming in second place for seemingly every one of their targets, remember they have Max Scherzer. They went into a crowded offseason bazaar, elbowed everyone out of the way, and came back with the best pitcher available. He’s just about the best pitcher unavailable right now, and the Nationals have him. They won that offseason, and they’re expected to contend this year in large part because of it.

Now that you’ve acknowledged that, it’s OK to rag on them a little bit for this season. Their Jedi deferral contract tricks aren’t working this offseason, and it’s cost them shots at Yoenis Cespedes, Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, and Kenley Jansen. They crashed through the walls of the hot stove league like the Kool-Aid Man, inspiring 100-point headlines like “Nationals attempting to acquire both Chris Sale, Andrew McCutchen,” getting neither.

So far, the end result has been the Nationals acquiring Adam Eaton for their best trade chips in a trade that’s been evaluated skeptically. That’s mostly because Eaton isn’t Sale, and there was once a sense that a Sale trade was missing a few dotted-i’s and crossed-t’s, and it’s incredibly unfair to both the Nationals and Eaton (who, as it turns out, is really, really, really good). The trade has the whiff of pragmatism about it, though, and people were expecting spit-take moves, fueled by the hot rumors that would come, one after the other.

To put it another way: This has been an offseason filled with the Nationals raising expectations and slipping right under them. Fair or not, the results haven’t matched the promises hinted at on their MLB Trade Rumors page.

This is a reminder of a couple of key points, however. They’re being overlooked at the moment.

Point: The Nationals didn’t exactly need 746 different roster moves to become a good team

They were already really good. Really, really good. We’re clear on that, right? They won 95 games in a season with half a Trea Turner and an underwhelming Bryce Harper. They’re bringing everyone back they want to, and they’re shedding the players they don’t. If they’re missing out on players, that’s just a cynical way to look at the efforts of a 95-win team trying to improve.

Now note that the 95-win team just replaced Ben Revere’s miserable 560 OPS with Eaton, who’s been one of baseball’s most productive players for the last three seasons. Suddenly the narrative shifts from, “lol the Nationals keep missing out” to “uh, this Nationals team might already be better than last year’s, and there’s a lot of offseason left.”

That doesn’t mean they’re a perfect team. The projected first baseman is still Ryan Zimmerman, a middle manager who’s been there for years and cracks great jokes at the holiday party, even if no one’s really sure what he actually does there. He’ll hold down a bottom of the lineup that’s also counting on Jayson Werth (38 and slowing way down) and Derek Norris (whose on-base percentage last year is 50 points lower than the batting average of the catcher he’s replacing.)

If Daniel Murphy is merely good instead of great, and if Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper continue being merely good instead of great, it might end up being a lineup with a lot of recognizable names that’s easier to pitch to than it should be. This isn’t a perfect roster.

The response to that goes something like ...

Max Scherzer Stephen Strasburg Tanner Roark Gio Gonzalez Joe Ross

And it’s a pretty danged good response. Also, don’t forget the part where the Nationals still have a few months to make moves.

Point: Missing out on the expensive closers might be a good thing

Look at you. I don’t even recognize you anymore. You’re all hopped up on Andrew Miller dust, thinking it’s necessary to pay big money for the best and brightest relievers in baseball because of the 2015 Royals and 2016 Indians. That’s not what the sabermetric orthodoxy used to be, man. You’ve changed.

The maxim used to be that teams shouldn’t pay for saves. When the Blue Jays signed B.J. Ryan for way too much money, we laughed at them. And we were right to do so. When the White Sox signed David Robertson for too much money, it didn’t make too much sense. And look at that, he hasn’t made much of a difference at all.

How quickly we forget that the Giants’ closer in 2014 pitched just two-thirds of an inning in a seven-game World Series. While that had a lot to do with Madison Bumgarner, it’s still an argument against an $80 million closer, especially for a team that’s still hoping to keep Bryce Harper around for the next decade. Consider how the closers for championship teams before the 2015 Royals were acquired. In reverse-chronological order, starting with 2014:

Minor league free agent

Inexpensive free agent

Homegrown

Homegrown

Homegrown

Homegrown

High-profile trade

Homegrown

Waiver claim

That’s how it used to be. You weren’t supposed to spend scores of millions for a single inning. Now we’re all messed up by Wade Davis and Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Andrew Miller. It seems like a team has to have a hyper-dominant ninth-inning arm if they want to win. Maybe that’s the new paradigm, but it wasn’t always true.

There are still options, even if the Nationals don’t want to make a big trade.

still good pen arms to go: holland, ziegler, romo, dunn, logan, blevins, lopez, howell, blanton, tazawa, storen, hochevar — Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 13, 2016

Drew Storen, eh? I have words for that, but nothing that would make my point better than a well-placed thinking-face emoji.

Anyway, it’s possible, if not probable, that three of those guys for a fifth of the cost of one Melancon will give the Nationals more for their money. That’s how the smart teams used to build their bullpens, at least. Give the gig to Shawn Kelley and focus on other things.

Point: If there’s one team that doesn’t want to screw up another postseason because of a bullpen, it’s the Nationals

Yeah, about that sabermetric orthodoxy. The Nationals don’t want to hear it. They want less drama, and they’re willing to pay for it. We explored the psychological side of a good closer in September, with the Giants.

... it’s the fear of doing what the Giants have done that really drives the contracts. It’s that stray what if in the back of every GM’s mind, as he knows that extensions usually aren’t handed out for having the most efficient WAR/$ ranking in baseball, but that pink slips might be coming if the stupid bullpen blows another stupid lead that ends up with another stupid loss.

The extra humiliation that comes with a wretched bullpen is why the Giants paid an extra $10 million to pry Mark Melancon away. It’s why the Nationals traded some solid prospects to get a half-season from Melancon in the first place. There’s a fear, here, and it’s very real and ultimately justified. The Nationals know this as well as any other team. Better than most teams, really.

There’s still a lot of offseason left, though, and the important things to remember are a) the Nationals didn’t have very far to go and they’re already a little better, b) missing out on Jansen and Melancon might be a good thing, and c) you’ll forgive them a minor panic in their search for a new closer because they’ve seen the dark side of an inconsistent bullpen.

There’s still time, and there’s still talent. Let’s wait a month or two before we question the Nationals’ offseason. And maybe there’s no reason to question it at all, even if they don’t make another big move at all.