by Warren Sharp

The Packers offense in 2014 was an offensive juggernaut, but their performance was one of the most overlooked accomplishments in recent memory because we always expect the Packers to be a great offense and post double digit wins. Certainly, the Packers finished 12-4 and were an onsides kick + a Russell Wilson bomb from making the Super Bowl, but take a look at the numbers and you’ll see the true dominance:

1st in Offensive efficiency

1st in Offensive 30 & In TD %

2nd in Offensive 3rd down efficiency

2nd in Offensive pass efficiency

2nd in Offensive yds/pass

3rd in Offensive EDSR

3rd in Overall efficiency

4th in Offensive yds/point

5th in Offensive red zone efficiency

These are tremendous numbers, but other offenses have put up similar numbers in the last 20 years. However, the context of how they produced these numbers given the failings of their defense in key situations is no better illustrated than looking at two of my custom metrics: 30 & In TD % and EDSR:

In 30 & In TD %, which measures how often a team scores touchdowns when starting inside their own 30 yard line (negating great field position as a result of a defensive performance) the Packers ranked #1. They scored TDs on 31% of drives which started inside their 30 yard line. Teams ranked 2nd thru 10th ranged from 26% to 22%, so you can see how far out from the pack the Packers really were. (Which was important because their defense was the worst in the NFL per this metric. The Packers defense allowed 27% of all drives which started from their opponents 30 to score TDs, literally tying the Saints for dead last in the NFL.)

In EDSR, the Packers offense ranked 3rd best (behind the Saints and Steelers). EDSR looks at early down success and frequency of bypassing 3rd downs, a hallmark of efficient offenses. (Again, this was imperative to be strong to overcome their defense which ranked dead last in this metric, this time falling behind the porous defense of the Atlanta Falcons.)

Two of my favorite custom metrics which bleed efficiency, and the Packers defense finishes dead last in both of them. Its extremely improbable that a defense as bad as the Packers was in those key metrics could have led Green Bay to a 12-4 record. It was entirely because of the brilliance of their offense that they won as often as they did. But what gets overlooked is the historical significance of their performance. Take for example the Packers first half performance:

Typically, the better team on any given day will have a lead a halftime, and typically that means they will win the game. Over the last 15+ years, teams who lead at halftime win 77% of their games, with 75% of them also covering the spread. Last year, Green Bay led at halftime in 11 games and won all 11 of them. They only won 12 games, so there was just one game where they did not lead at halftime that they won. No team led at halftime in more games than Green Bay did last year.

They led at halftime in so many games because they averaged over 19 points in the first half. No team averaged near that amount. Teams 2, 3 and 4 (Patriots, Eagles, Broncos) averaged between 15 and 16.

And they way they scored so many points in the first half is because they scored TDs on 40% of their 1st half drives! Since 1998 (17 yrs, as far back as I tracked it) only the 2007 Patriots scored 1st half TDs more often.

This result was even more impressive when you consider some of the areas this offense struggled. To compensate for one of the worst short yardage rushing offenses (converting just 55% of 3rd and short runs into first downs, 26th in the NFL), Aaron Rodgers converted a ridiculous 79% of his 3rd and short passes into first downs.

Aaron Rodgers was absolutely unconscious when passing in the first half. His stat line of 25 TDs (#1), 0 Ints (#1), 66% completions and 8.8 yds/att (#1) equated to a 120.3 passer rating, which was #1 in the NFL.

On deep passes in the first half (15+ yds downfield) Rodgers posted a 136 rating, which was also #1 in the NFL. Not just in 2014. Aaron Rodgers posted the NFL’s best passer rating that the NFL has seen since at least 2006 (as far back as I was able to track deep passes of 15+ yds downfield).

Truly, not enough has been made about what Aaron Rodgers and this Green Bay Packers offense did in 2014, particularly in the first half, to grab the lead and then maintain it, despite their poor defensive performance in multiple advanced metrics.

I’ll break the Packers offense down in substantially more depth (along with the 31 other teams) in my 2015 NFL Preview E-Book – a follow-up to the well-acclaimed inaugural 2014 edition, which will be ready for download mid-July and is steeped in advanced metrics and analytics unlike any preview you’ve seen before.

Until then, we can watch video evidence of some of Aaron Rodgers insane throws thanks to CheeseheadTV.com’s Aaron Nagler:









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