February 2019 Has Been a Doozy

Yes, we've all had enough. Even the hardiest of Minnesotans are starting to complain. We surrender! I don't have anymore room to put all this February snow - good grief!

Snowiest February and 4th Snowiest Month on Record - AND Counting!

According to the National Weather Service (thru 6PM February 26th) 37.2" of snow has fallen at the MSP Airport, which not only crushes the previous snowiest February on record of 26.5" set in 1962, but it is now the 4th snowiest MONTH in recorded history at MSP! What is impressive is that we were able to achieve this in the first 26 days of the month! I don't think we'll be able to crack the top spot, but could we make it to 40" ??

____________________________________________________________________________ Record February Snowfall Here's how much snow has fallen across the region so far this month. Note the "R" appended to a few of the numbers below. This means that those locations have had their snowiest February on record! ________________________________________________________________________________ "February 2019 is Setting Records for Snowfall - Updated February 25th" "This month has been so snowy that it is setting records for daily and monthly totals. On February 12th, Eau Claire, Wisconsin set a record for their snowiest February on record, and they continue to demolish this record total with each additional storm. The Twin Cities and St. Cloud also broke their February snowfall record as of February 20th, and continue to add to the record total. In addition, Eau Claire has had the all-time snowiest month on record this February with 48.3" as of February 25th. This shattered the previous monthly snowfall record from January of 1929 when 35.3" fell. Eau Claire has also broken the record for the most snow during meteorological winter (December through February). As of February 25th, Eau Claire has received 67.6" of snow. The previous record was 61.6" during the winter months of 1996-1997." See more from the NWS Twin Cities HERE:

______________________________________________________________________ Snow Depth Take a look at the snow depth report from Sunday of last weekend. Note that most locations have more than a foot of snow on the ground. There are even a few locations across central and northeastern Minnesota that have more than 2ft of snow on the ground. ____________________________________________________________________________ More Snow End of Week We're not quite done with the snow chances just yet this week. In fact, there's another light snow chance that looks to scoot across the southern half of the state with more light accumulations. However, Friday is also the first day of March, so our snow February will have ended by then. ____________________________________________________________________________ Snowfall Potential Here's the ECMWF snowfall potential from Tuesday to Saturday, which shows a fairly broad swath of 2" to 4" tallies across the southern half of the state. Keep in mind that the totals below will be from two different systems, the one on Tuesday and the one on Friday.

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Weather Outlook Wednesday

High temps on Wednesday will only warm into the single digits and teens across the state, which will be nearly -15F to -25F below the average for late February. Keep in mind that our average high in the Twin Cities now is +33F.

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Temperature Outlook

Here is the temperature outlook as we head through the rest of the month and into the first 13 days of March. Temps on Wednesday will still be quite a bit colder than average as our high in the Twin Cities approaches +15F. We do warm up a touch as we head through the rest of the week, but keep in mind that our average high is +33F, so we will still be well below average. It appears that we take another hit in the temp department late weekend and early next week with high temps back in the single digits and lows in the sub-zero range.

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Winter Severity Index

Wondering if this has been a bad winter or not? Well, let's consult the MNDNR State Climatology Office who has a running tally on how "severe" the winter has been thus far. Here's how it is measured:

"The Twin Cities Snow and Cold Index (SCI) is an attempt to weigh the relative severity of winter when compared with winters of the past. The SCI assigns single points for daily counts of maximum temperatures 10 degrees F or colder, and daily minimums of 0 degrees F or colder. If the minimum temperature drops to -20 degrees or colder greater, eight points are attributed to that day. Snowfall totals of one inch or greater in a day receive one point. Four-inch snowfalls generate four points for the day, an eight-inch snowfall receives a whopping 16 points. To quantify the duration of winter, one point is tallied for every day with a snow depth of 12 inches or greater."

Based on this information (thru February 12th), the Twin Cities has accumulated 103 points, which is considered to be a "moderate" winter. Keep in mind that these numbers haven't been updated since our record breaking February snow earlier this week, so the number will certainly be higher when the updated information comes out. By comparison:

"The SCI for the winter of 2013-14 in Twin Cities was 207 points, or in the high end of the "severe winter" category. This was the 9th most severe winter on record based on SCI points. The lowest SCI score was the winter of 2011-2012 with 16 points. The most severe winter is 1916-1917 with 305 SCI points."

See more from the MNDNR State Climate Office HERE:

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Great Lakes Ice Coverage

According to NOAA's GLERL, Lake Superior is nearly 75% covered in ice, which is greater than it was at this time last year and also in 2017. The last several weeks have really helped with significant ice growth over the Great Lakes region. Interestingly, the entire great lakes (as of February 25th) was sitting at nearly 56% ice coverage, which is just slightly above the long-term average of 55%.

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"The science behind the polar vortex"

"The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding the Earth's North and South poles. The term vortex refers to the counter-clockwise flow of air that helps keep the colder air close to the poles (left globe). Often during winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the polar vortex will become less stable and expand, sending cold Arctic air southward over the United States with the jet stream (right globe). The polar vortex is nothing new – in fact, it's thought that the term first appeared in an 1853 issue of E. Littell's Living Age. "

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Temperature Anomalies

Here's a look at the temperature anomaly aross North America on Tuesday, which showed cooler than average temps across much of the Upper Midwest and Western Canada.

_________________________________________________________________________ Temperature Outlook Here's the temp anomaly outlook from across the nation as we head into the last couple of days of February and into early March. Note the next blob of colder air that looks to move into the Lower 48 as we approach the weekend. ____________________________________________________________________________ Temperature Outlook Oh the humanity... According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook from March 5th - 11th suggests colder than average temperatures continuing across much of the country once again. ___________________________________________________________________________

Spring Leaf Anomaly Here's an interesting map for folks that may be sick of winter. It's the NPN Spring Leaf Anomaly map, which shows that spring has indeed sprung across the southern tier of the nation. The red colors indicate that spring leaves are actually emerging earlier than average in those areas. _______________________________________________________________________ "Phenology Report: February 12, 2019" If you're interested in nature and how it relates to climate, you might like this. John Latimer is a Phenologist in central/northern Minnesota and has a weekly phenology report on KAXE. Here's what he has been observing. "Phenology is the biological nature of events as they relate to climate. Every Tuesday morning, our resident Phenologist John Latimer gathers his phenological data and reports his findings in the weekly Phenology Report. In this week's report, return of gold finches,deep snow and an increase in sunlight resulting in changes in the colors of many trees including the speckled alder!" Listen to his report on KAXE HERE: _______________________________________________________________________________ Ice Safety Reminder

The MN DNR has some basic guidelines on how thick the ice should be before you even think about stepping out onto the ice! Also remember that ice is NEVER 100% SAFE!



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Can We Talk About Anything But The Weather?

By Paul Douglas This is getting out of hand. Russian trolls mock me on Twitter. Polite conversation stops when I walk into a room. Dear friends don't return my calls. Even my dog looks up at me with contempt. You do realize I'm just the messenger, right? February is the cruelest month, and 2019 is Exhibit A. Nearly 3 month's worth of snow has fallen this month. Winter snowfall at MSP just passed 54 inches, which is average for an entire winter. And who knows what slushy abominations March may bring? NOAA predicts colder weather into mid-March, which seems right. Consider this: we've picked up 2 hours, 16 minutes of daylight since December 21 - 3 extra minutes of daylight daily. A higher sun angle will soon thaw us out, melt snow; turning landscapes green and lush. Probably in a meteorological blink of an eye. Skies clear today with a quiet Thursday on tap. Another plowable snow is possible PM hours on Friday (shocking) but a push of colder air keeps weekend storms confined to our south. I see a few 30s the second week of March. This too shall pass. Really!

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