Morning Fix: A premature celebration for the GOP

Republicans in Washington can barely contain their glee at the turn of President Obama's political fortunes in the first nine months of the year but a new Washington Post/ABC News poll suggests the GOP still faces serious perception problems in the eyes of the American public.

Less than one in five voters (19 percent) expressed confidence in Republicans' ability to make the right decisions for America's future while a whopping 79 percent lacked that confidence.

Among independent voters, who went heavily for Obama in 2008 and congressional Democrats in 2006, the numbers for Republicans on the confidence questions were even more worse. Just 17 percent of independents expressed confidence in Republicans' ability to make the right decision while 83 percent said they did not have that confidence.

(While Obama's numbers on the confidence question weren't amazing -- 49 percent confident/50 percent not confident -- they were far stronger than those for Republicans.)

On the generic ballot question, 51 percent of the sample said they would cast a vote for a Democratic candidate in their congressional district next fall while just 39 percent said they would opt for a GOP candidate. (As late as this summer, Republicans had seemingly narrowed the wide generic ballot lead Democrats enjoyed for much of the last two election cycles.)

And, perhaps most troubling for GOP hopes is the fact that just 20 percent of the Post sample identified themselves as Republicans, the lowest that number has been in Post polling since 1983. (No, that is not a typo.)

These numbers, coming roughly one year before the 2010 midterm elections, show that any celebration on the GOP's behalf is premature as the party has yet to convince most voters that it can be a viable alternative to Democratic control in Washington today.

As former House speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) told the Post's Dan Balz recently, voters are "more skeptical of Republicans than they were in '93 and '94" when the GOP took back the House majority for the first time in four decades.

That's not to say that 2009 hasn't been a good year for Republicans. By and large, it has been.

The party that was left for dead in January slowly but surely -- thanks to a growing sense of frustration and fear about the growth of government under the Obama administration -- has crawled its way back to relevance.

But, relevance is not all it takes to reclaim the majority mantle in Congress. While Republicans are outgunned by the bully pulpit of President Obama, they need to find ways over the next year (or so) to make sure the American people know what they would do if they were placed in charge after the 2010 election.

In short: Republicans are still a long way from the sort of standing they held with the American people earlier this decade when they controlled the White House, the Senate and the House. That doesn't mean they won't find their way there between now and 2010 -- or, more realistically, 2012 -- but they aren't there yet.

Tuesday's Fix Picks: Eddie Royal and his returns single-handedly led the Fix fantasy team to defeat.

1. The hits keeps on coming for Chris Christie.

2. Your health care questions, answered.

3. Ron Paul is going to Iowa.

4. Stu on why Christie will win in New Jersey.

5. Michelle O. on Leno Friday night.

Inhofe for Rubio: Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), a conservative firebrand, threw his support behind the Senate candidacy former Florida state House speaker Marco Rubio (R) on Monday calling him "exactly the type of conservative leader Americans need in Washington today." Inhofe is the latest national conservative leader -- former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (R) and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) are among the others -- to back Rubio's challenge to Gov. Charlie Crist (R) who has secured the endorsement of the National Republican Senatorial Committee among other establishment organizations. Crist still holds wide leads in both polling and fundraising in the primary race but his recent decision to begin running radio ads touting his conservative credentials suggests he is nervous about his standing.

DeMint Draws a Challenge: Democrats have finally found a challenger to South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint in advance of his bid for a second term in 2010. Attorney Chad McGowan announced his intention Monday and previewed a message likely to focus heavily on the fact that he has never before held elected office. "Right now, we have a government of the lobbyists, by the lobbyists and for the lobbyists," McGowan said in a release. "It's time to put middle class families first." For all of the vitriol directed at DeMint from national Democrats, it's not immediately clear that his emergence as a spokesman for conservatives will negatively affect him back in South Carolina. The state remains solidly conservative and Democrats are far more optimistic -- though not all that optimistic -- about their chances of winning the seat being vacated by Gov. Mark Sanford (R) next fall. McGowan is sure to benefit from some anti-DeMint money headed his way and reportedly has considerable personal wealth of his own to spend on the race but the demographics of the state are tough to overcome.

Click It!: Americans for Stable Quality Care, a coalition effort that has pledged to spend $12 million in support of President Obama's health care plan, is going up with two new ads in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Indiana, Louisiana, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota and Virginia -- as well as on national cable. In one wordless ad, a man is shown moving out of his home and into an apartment due to cost of health care for his hospitalized wife; the other ad is a more traditional commercial aimed at informing undecided voters what's in it for them as it relates to the health care plan.

Sestak Gets Ned Nod: Connecticut businessman Ned Lamont, who upset Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) in the 2006 Democratic primary only to lose to the incumbent in the general election, endorsed Rep. Joe Sestak's primary challenge to party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter (D) at a event in Philadelphia on Monday. "Joe Sestak knows where he stands politically," said Lamont. That's not something that comes from calculation, that comes from the heart." Sestak had touted the endorsement -- without saying who would actually be doing the endorsing -- since last week, and, on a conference call with reporters on Monday, sought to draw a straight line between Lamont's 2006 campaign and his 2010 bid. "He is someone we are modeling our campaign on," said Sestak of Lamont. One thing Sestak lacks that Lamont had in abundance is personal wealth; Lamont, like Sestak, was shunned by the party establishment but his deep pockets more than made up for the lack of financial support. Sestak is a strong fundraiser but does not have that luxury.

Say What?: "I've had a chance to work with this guy for four full years and nobody works harder or smarter for North Carolina than Richard Burr does." -- Former Clinton White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles (D), who ran against Burr in 2004, hands Republicans an ad next fall.