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2015 is almost upon us, and with it a general election more ferocious in its intensity and unpredictable in its outcome than any for a generation.

But if this prospect fills you with dread, do not despair. There are parts of the UK where the campaign is likely to pass off almost unnoticed, and towns and villages where all traces of hustings will be virtually non-existent. A few posters will flutter, a few leaflets will circulate, but that’s it.

The reason? Our system of voting. Choosing MPs on a first-past-the-post, winner-takes-all basis has created a lop-sided nation, where target seats are spread unevenly and great chunks of the UK have no chance of changing hands.

It means the 2015 election will play out in a host of highly-localised, tightly-focused contests, rather than at a uniform pitch right across the country. This is particularly true of England, where certain counties will experience a deluge of campaigning while others will be grazed by barely a single ministerial visit.

A few of us will brush up against the election only in news bulletins or newspaper headlines.

So where precisely should you head if you’re minded to escape the election? There are four counties in England to choose from. They are Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Surrey and West Sussex. Each contains precisely no marginal seats and no targets by any political party.

The constituencies within these counties are among some of the safest in the whole of England – and the Conservatives hold them all, bar Labour’s seat of Slough in Berkshire: a sole blob of red amid a blanket of blue.

This quartet of counties is the equivalent of the quiet carriage on a train. If any electioneering does take place within their borders, it will be at a hush, not a shout. Politicians may pass through these places, or more probably fly over, but always en route to other destinations.

A further six counties in England hold just one target seat each. Labour is eyeing three, all currently held by the Tories: Peterborough in Cambridgeshire; Lincoln in Lincolnshire; and Northampton North in Northamptonshire.

The other three are Tory targets: the Lib Dems’ seat of Berwick-upon-Tweed in Northumberland; the Labour seat of Telford in Shropshire; and Rochester & Strood in Kent, recently won by Mark Reckless for Ukip.

These six counties won’t escape the election completely, but each is large enough for the intensity of their respective contests to be somewhat diluted.

What about the other end of the scale? I have bad news if you live in Cornwall and hate elections: every single one of your county’s six seats is a marginal.

Every single one of Cornwall’s six seats is a marginal.

Three are held by the Tories and three by the Lib Dems. It’s the latter trio that will see the bulk of the action, with the Conservatives going for a hat-trick of gains that would, if it came to pass, leave the county entirely in the hands of one party. Cornwall is unique. In no other county of England is every seat a marginal. But there are much higher numbers of marginals in other areas.

The greatest quantity, unsurprisingly, is in London, which also has the greatest concentration of seats. A total of 18 of its 73 constituencies are in play, eight eyed by the Tories, 10 by Labour.

The metropolitan areas of West Midlands and Greater Manchester are also rich in marginals: 15 in the former, 11 in the latter. But most are Labour-held, so there might not be many seats that ultimately change hands.

It’s in Lancashire that we’re going to see some of the fiercest Tory-Labour clashes. Labour has six targets in the county while the Tories are eyeing four. It’s a showdown upon which the election outcome could turn, for if Labour fails to make any significant advance here, there’s little chance of it ending up the largest party in parliament. In no other county outside London has Labour got so many target seats.

It’s in Lancashire that we’re going to see some of the fiercest Tory-Labour clashes.

Close behind is West Yorkshire, which boasts five Labour targets and 13 marginal seats. The Tories are challenging Labour in seven of them. Ed Miliband’s party can’t afford an ounce of complacency here.

Labour’s third key county outside London is East Sussex. The party has four targets within its border, all along the south coast: the two Brighton seats Kempton and Pavilion, plus Hove and Hastings & Rye. All have majorities of under 2,000, and all – bar Brighton Pavilion – are Tory held. It’ll be fascinating to see if Labour is able to make progress in the south on a par with that in the north.

As for the Conservatives, their next most important focus outside London and Cornwall is also in the south: Devon, where they have four targets, two currently held by Labour and two by the Lib Dems.

The Labour seats of Plymouth Moor View (majority 1,588) and Exeter (2,721) are arithmetically easier to gain than those held by the Lib Dems, which are Torbay (4,078) and Devon North (5,821). But the Tories are also under threat from Labour in Plymouth South & Devonport, where they have a majority of just 1,149. As such the Conservatives could take two steps forward but one step back in this county.

There are up to 10 notional Tory targets in the West Midlands metropolitan area, but I doubt they’ll succeed in a single one. They’d be far wiser allocating resources to fights they can win, such as those throughout the West Country. Hard luck if you’re planning a holiday in that part of the world over Easter.

There are up to 10 notional Tory targets in the West Midlands, but I doubt they’ll succeed in any.

Lastly, I’d pick out three counties that, while not integral to the election battleground, boast enough marginals and targets to make them rich pickings.

They are Derbyshire, where six seats are in play and where Labour is hoping to make three gains; Nottinghamshire, with five marginals in contention and the Tories eyeing two possible gains; and Humberside, which has four marginals, three of which are held by Labour, two of which are being eyed by the Tories, and one, Great Grimsby, is a top Ukip target.

I’ve not included Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland in this survey. There will be similar variations in the level of campaigning in each, but not on a scale as that likely in England, or at such extremes.

Come April, most of us will know the election is going on. Some of us will have it stuffed through our letterbox every morning and have it follow us down the high street each weekend. But a few of us will brush up against it only in news bulletins or newspaper headlines. Such is the inconsistent manner in which the political future of the UK will be decided.

Those with postcodes in south-west or north-west England: brace yourselves for an onslaught. Those with postcodes in the Home Counties: watch out for the tumbleweed.