By Adam Spinella

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In today’s day and age, there’s only so far a team can go without a true superstar player and focal point. The Denver Nuggets tried to buck this trend five years ago, trading Carmelo Anthony for a loot of really good players. The star-less core had its fair share of success, getting up to a 57-win season. But those Nuggets teams never won a postseason series, and knew an effort to get younger and find their star of the next generation was paramount to moving deeper in the playoffs. It was a de facto rebuild.

In essence, rebuilding (whether on the fly or quite deliberately) is about two stages: identifying a franchise cornerstone and filling in the holes around him in the most effective way. Right now, Denver is caught somewhere between steps one and two.

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Eighteen months. That’s how long it took the Nuggets brass to figure out that Nikola Jokic is a franchise cornerstone. Jokic is such a unique player, and one that makes others around him better the more he plays alongside them. Denver stumbled over his success in a way, as the Nuggets have juggled simultaneously developing and evaluating their entire loot of young players.

Lost in the constant lineup shuffle (along with consistency) has been a focus on defense. Part of that problem comes from a lack of a rim protector, the biggest area where the Nuggets need to test Jokic. Tossing young players into the fiery chasm of defending the greatest athletes in the world night in and night out without a rim protector is a losing proposition from the jump.

GM Tim Connelly has drafted well, made very strong deals on the trade market and crafted a group with a wonderful blend of individual offensive talents. As Connelly and coach Mike Malone evaluate the appropriate moves to make next to bolster this roster, figuring out how to raise the team’s defense without giving up talented, young scorers is a top priority.

Second year center Nikola Jokic has emerged as that top threat for the Nuggets, and what a unique primary option he is. The Nuggets have one of the best international scouting departments in the league, and leveraged it to finding their best player less than two years ago, selecting him with the 41st pick of the 2015 NBA Draft. Expecting Jokic to be the star within two years of drafting him is like expecting the Falcons to collapse at halftime of the Super Bowl.

Alas, the Nuggets are 15-13 this season when Jokic starts versus 7-13 without him starting. When The Joker is on the court, the Nuggets offensive rating is 11 points higher than when he sits. Currently, Jokic is seventh in the league among qualifying players in Offensive Plus/ Minus, ahead of names like LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant. Of all players in the top 10, Jokic is the only non-All-Star (save the injured Chris Paul). Of those 10, Jokic has the highest true shooting percentage, the lowest usage rate and the highest rebounding rate.

Jokic already stands out as perhaps the best passing big man in the league. He whizzes passes through tight windows right into the target shown by his teammates, leading them towards the basket for an easy layup or dunk. His transition outlets are great break-starters, and his ability to make plays off what seems like the slowest, clunkiest drive to the rim sneaks up on even the most well-scouted opponents. Jokic is a dangerous facilitator on the blocks too, and he makes some of the best passes with a defender walled up right into his chest. Simply put, he’s electric to watch thanks to his unbelievable court vision and flare for the fancy.

League-wide trends indicate that skilled big men who can play on the perimeter are the wave of the future. Players like Karl-Anthony Towns, Joel Embiid and Kristaps Porzingis are all considered contemporaries for Jokic, but the Serbian is far different in his playing style. The other bigs thrive in isolation or pick-and-pop scenarios, or using their athleticism for their size to run off actions like a guard. Jokic is the least mobile of them all, using a crafty and cerebral feel for the game to generate offensive efficiency.

Michael Malone has adjusted to having Jokic as the focal point of their offense. Jokic is the league leader in field goal percentage in the mid-range, has an above-average three-point stroke for a big man, and those assists… they’re a thing of beauty when he passes from the top of the key. As such, Malone has leveraged Jokic into playing at the “point” of the offense — the slice of court between the elbows and above the free-throw line, even extending beyond the three-point line.

A Point Offense, designed around a play-making big man, requires lots of passing from the elbows as well as screening and knocking down the occasionally open three. The scoring is secondary for Jokic, who has led the team in assists per game since being inserted as a permanent starter. He is looking to facilitate at the top of the key. When his man plays him too tight, he can either rip by and get to the rim with an unorthodox finger roll or a hook shot while he appears to be falling over. Teams that sag off Jokic give up open threes or are unable to provide help on dribble handoffs that happen at such a high speed. It’s the perfect offense designed around his talents.

Jokic is a great scorer and decision maker of so-called “short rolls,” where he catches the ball quickly after a pick or a handoff and makes exciting passes to other open teammates. Jokic isn’t leading the league in mid-range field goal percentage by accident — he’s got incredible touch on these push shots and floaters from the mid-range. Malone has allowed Jokic to play without a script and improvise, which appears to be where he is at his best and most creative. Defenses are always on their toes as if an impending dribble handoff, ball screen, backdoor cut or clunky Jokic drive will take place.

Teammates have caught the passing fever, and the Nuggets offense is one of the most jointly unselfish in the league. Several assists by others can be traced back to “hockey assists” from Jokic, where he’s the passer that led to the assist. That fever has its downsides though, especially as Jokic is concerned. He can get into a habit of over-passing; pushing the ball too quickly to start a fast break, trying to fit the ball into too tight of a window, or passing it to an unsuspecting cutter that doesn’t have many options once they receive the pass. Defenders often key in on him, especially in transition, by shutting off outlet valves and forcing the slow-footed Jokic to dribble the length of the court to initiate offense.

For all the offensive wonder that Jokic represents within this style of offense, the defensive end of the court is still very much a work in progress. He has forced the Nuggets hand by being so damn good on the offensive end that they’re forced to play him heavy minutes before he has mastered the fundamentals of interior defense. Frequently, Jokic cedes low post position and gets himself so low on drop-back PNR coverage that teams get uncontested layups against the Nuggets.

The “no-man’s land” where Jokic finds himself — a step too high above the restricted area but too low to keep the ball handler out of the paint — is the death nail to any effective ball screen coverage. Nuances of the defensive game like that come only with time, and there’s hope that Jokic can some day become a strong positional post defender that helps anchor a defense.

For now, Malone and his group must find a way to cover the Jokic weaknesses. Scoring bigs go right at him on the blocks and score with decent success. Not a big shot blocker (only one per 36 minutes), Jokic won’t influence a ton of shots from guards knifing towards the rim. Adding a bonafide rim protector next to him is certainly on the radar of the organization — as long as that rim protector doesn’t interrupt the flow of the offense. Finding a piece like that arguably is harder than finding a franchise center.

There is still some doubt about what type of primary scoring option Jokic will be. Teams can play through him, and the Nuggets are much better when they do. In crunch time of a big game when the Nuggets need a bucket, it’s unclear if Jokic is the type of player they can throw the ball to in an isolation and trust that he’ll get a basket. He is currently averaging 21.5 points per 36 minutes, an incredibly respectable number. Yet in big possessions and in postseason play, the easy solution would be to get the ball out of his hands immediately and make someone else win the game.

Finding the right supporting cast — especially on the perimeter — is crucial to successfully leveraging Jokic as an alpha male.

The Nuggets are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, as coach Michael Malone has not been shy about hammering home. He’s earned a reputation for being a strong tactician and a good locker room leader. The lack of solutions he’s come up with that help this Nuggets squad feature even a closer-to-average defense may speak more about the makeup of this roster than it does to anything that Malone can do about it. For a team clinging to life for a playoff spot out West, the level of play on that end of the court certainly must improve.

Malone opened up a full-frontal assault against the team’s embarrassing defense and lack of identity early in January.

“Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships. Right now our defense is the worst in the NBA. We have the worst defense in the NBA. That is the bottom line. It is embarrassing how we go out and attempt to defend every night. That is something that we have to try and fix as soon as possible, because it’s at an all-time low right now, and that is a huge concern of mine.”

Transition defense is, first and foremost, and important indicator of engagement and effort. Thus far the Nuggets have lacked both, often leaving the rim unprotected, not stopping the ball and worrying far too much about individual matchups instead of preventing a basket.

Malone has tinkered with the team’s defensive schemes throughout the season to try and find something that fits his struggling backcourt. Simple defensive rotations on screens and handoffs left the Nuggets struggling to stop the ball, or to get through screens. Help defenders on the weak side were late to their assignments, and the Nuggets give up far too many layups at the rim.

This wasn’t just their youngsters messing up, either. Veterans like Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari are struggling to compensate for the poor defense the Nuggets have in ball actions. Without a rim protector to clean up the mess, there needs to be more resistance on the perimeter that prevents players from getting to the rim.

No such resistance exists, especially from starting point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. Mudiay routinely allows his man to simply drive down the throat of the defense. Whether in transition, the half-court, a middle ball screen, a side ball screen or a straight line drive, Mudiay seems to plant his feet in the ground and do little to influence towards the baseline. Whenever a middle drive like this occurs, it doesn’t matter who is sitting behind the defense to protect the rim, the offense is going to score frequently.

To combat their weaknesses, Malone will switch guards one through three off the ball instead of on it, trying to keep these guys from falling out of position. Guarding the initial ball handler, Mudiay can then switch off his responsibility of marking a ball screen driver and spend more time on shooters. The theory behind off-ball switches isn’t completely crazy.

Results were less inspiring. These young guards are all offensive-minded players, and struggle to communicate these actions and switches. Failing to do so often cedes open shots and cutters, or sees the Nuggets running two at the ball.

Sometimes they get too caught up in switching on the perimeter and will forget to stop the roller heading towards the rim for a wide open dunk. Switching schemes can only do so much to neutralize dribble penetration or cutters from getting to the rim. Often times mismatches occur as a result, and teams with large guards and wings can exploit Denver, often playing Jamal Murray and Gary Harris at the 2-guard spot, or Jameer Nelson on the point.

Occasionally Malone has employed “ice” to try and pin the ball handler to one side of the floor, but the Nuggets lack big men who are quick enough or positionally smart enough to prevent dribble penetration from breaking down the coverage. Most of Denver’s lapses come on frequent NBA actions: ball screens and dribble handoffs in the heart of the floor.

Denver’s defense is a mess right now. The price of building around Jokic, a non rim protector, and a group of young guards is that the defense will continue to be porous. Malone and the entire organization will not stop trying to formulate a defensive identity or string along the kids to become fairly proficient. It is clear that, if the Nuggets want to win this year or in the next, they will have to do so by outscoring their opponents.

So, what do we make of the offensive contributions of these youngsters?

Emmanuel Mudiay’s development as the lead guard has not taken off. Often written off as one of the worst starters in the league due to his high turnover rate, Mudiay is the youngest starting point guard in the NBA, still unable to purchase a legal drink. Consistency will come for Mudiay with more time and more reps. In the meantime, the Nuggets are trying to balance his development with a playoff push, one of the most delicate scenarios any organization faces.

It’s too soon to bail on Mudiay this early into his career. ESPN’s Zach Lowe mentioned that the Nuggets have been “quietly” shopping Mudiay on the trade market. The returns for Mudiay cannot be encouraging, as he’s been wildly inconsistent during the first 18 months of his career, especially if the Nuggets are looking for multiple first-rounders in return. On a side note, what does it mean to “quietly” shop a player, and then tell a reporter? Not so quiet anymore…

There are games with flashes of great passes, heady play, scoring ability and consistent outside shooting. Then there are games, often in the same week, where he brings zero of those elements to the table.

Within the Nuggets offense (now built around Nikola Jokic as the point man at the top of the key) there are several opportunities for Mudiay to penetrate the middle of the floor off screens and dribble handoffs. His vision is still very strong-side oriented, seeing only what is happening on the side of the floor he’s dribbling towards. Snaking, and making more of an effort to get downhill, could open up more lanes for him to be under control and get others involved.

Mudiay severely lacks an in-between game, where he scores between the three-point line and the rim. This season, Mudiay is shooting 24 percent from between three and 10 feet, and only 28 percent between 10 and 16 feet. He’s improved directly at the rim, and is getting there more often. When defenses clamp down on the rim, Mudiay doesn’t quite have the touch or body control to conquer the contested floaters or extended layups.

Defenses love to force Mudiay into these predicaments. According to NBA.com stats, Mudiay turns the ball over 19.2 percent of the time he serves as the pick-and-roll handler. Young point guards struggle with the nuances of NBA defenses and mastering coverages, but Mudiay appears poorer than most. When a path to the rim is blocked, he will look to give up the ball without examining where it should go. His eyes are often a dead giveaway, as he either looks completely at the rim and pays no attention to the defense, or doesn’t look at the rim and allows help defenders to stay home on shooters and anticipate a kick-out.

Sometimes Mudiay is a victim to the Jokic over-passing epidemic. When Jokic puts the ball in Mudiay’s hands on a cut, Mudiay has little time to gather himself, get his feet beneath him and make an accurate, fast-paced read while heading to the basket.

Mudiay isn’t great off the ball (only a 31 percent three-point shooter) and he hasn’t learned how to play and cut without the ball in his hands. Many of the Nuggets other youngsters are far ahead of him in that department. A point guard that dominates the ball might not be the best long-term fit next to a player like Jokic.

Gary Harris is one of those guards who have learned to play effectively off the ball, especially in tandem with Nikola Jokic. Harris is a shooting 39 percent from three this year, a staggering 61 percent from the corners, and provides the spacing needed for the big man in their point offense to get to operate away from the basket.

Harris is a much better finisher near the basket than given credit for, shooting above 60 percent there. His shooting prowess has combined nicely with a crafty give-and-go game with Jokic, especially as a cutter. Harris has exceptional hands to gather in traffic and score the ball in smooth fashion.

Harris has scored incredibly low this season in most defensive metrics, again a byproduct of playing with poor defenders surrounding him. On an individual level, Harris hasn’t been too bad on his individual rotations or on-ball defense. He has some of those pitbull-like instincts that allow him to pressure opposing guards into turnovers. He’s stocky and athletic, so he rarely gets taken into the post for mismatches despite being only 6’4″. There’s some real building block potential here.

Of course, the same type of offensive presence exists on this roster in rookie Jamal Murray. Denver drafted Murray as the best player available and a perimeter scorer, and he’s shown flashes of certainly being both. Murray has struggled with consistency, as most rookies do, starting the season ice cold and getting a cold spell in mid-January. The statistics and metrics look like Murray is struggling as a rookie, but he’s holding his own on offense.

Part of the allure of Murray is just how smooth and effortless he makes everything look on the court. Malone can run plenty of sets and actions for Murray playing off the ball outside of their motion offense and trust that the Canadian rookie will convert. He’s got one of the quickest strokes in catch-and-shoot scenarios, and is incredibly adept on curling screens when defenders play him too tight. As a shooter playing off the ball, this rookie is smart beyond his years.

The Nuggets are allowing Murray to play off those handoffs and pick-and-rolls within their offense — for guards, it’s an equal opportunity system around Jokic. That means everybody gets time spotting up, with the ball in their hands or free-lancing as a cutter for Jokic to find. As Murray progresses as a decision-maker with the ball in his hands, he’ll be able to get others involved in the offense when he swirls through the lane off these picks and pitches. Right now we’re bound to see several possessions like this, where Murray takes ill-advised mid-range jumpers since he cannot read or manipulate the defense.

Statistics are unkind to Murray’s role as a ball handler off pick-and-roll actions. He’s only shooting 33.8 percent in such situations, and his point generation is in the 17 percentile in the league, per NBA.com stats, that’s lowest on the Nuggets for all qualifying players. That number is much higher when dribble handoffs are examined (63rd percentile in the league and shooting 50 percent from the field). Those metrics are far and above the value provided to the team by Mudiay or Gary Harris.

Coaches love how hard Murray cuts to get himself open, and his decision-making is decent when cutting and catching handoffs at such speed. He’s got fantastic body control too, and lulls defenders to sleep with that smooth nature.

Murray has a long road ahead on defense, especially if he never transitions to being a point guard in any stable units. Opposing guards or wings post him on the blocks, and Murray provides little to no resistance. Playing Murray at the point not only would cover up an area of attack for the opponent, but would bring more shooters around Jokic. Malone has and will continue to experiment with playing Murray at the point for stretches to see if the team has a long-term spark here.

The odd man out of all the Nuggets recent draft picks is Jusuf Nurkic, who at one point was the focal point of a rebuild instead of Nikola Jokic. Nurkic burst onto the scene last year as a brutish post player that dominated opposing big men without regard for safety. The defense and rim protection was never there for Nurkic, but the scoring boost he gave the Nuggets made him worth playing.

This year, Nurkic has been dreadful on the floor for the Nugs. His sophomore campaign has seen Nurkic shoot only 43 percent on his post-ups, with a 17.2 percent turnover frequency. For reference, of all players in the league who post up with at least a 30 percent frequency, Nurkic is second to last in field goal percentage and turnover frequency.

Defenses have figured out that Nurkic is completely right-hand dominant, only able to finish with his right hand around the basket. Nurkic also loves the left offensive block, where he can dribble middle with his right hand. Defenses key in on him and dig underneath his dribble post moves. Marc Gasol sums up in this possession why it’s so easy to guard Nurkic now: post defenders force him to spin back left, then crowd his inside shoulder, which he’ll shoot it with. The left hand doesn’t even need to touch the ball.

For coaches that like to double team the post, Jusuf is a prime candidate. Nurkic is a bad passer out of double teams — he doesn’t even look to pass, instead forcing up crazy shots without gathering himself. Malone tries to run Hi-Lo’s for all their posts; when Nurkic has to go to high post where he’s not a threat, defenses completely sag off him and blow up the play. We’ve gotten to the point where Nurkic, who was only a net-positive by playing on the block, doesn’t even add value there.

Watching Nurkic play defense is even more painful. That Memphis game saw Nurkic try to guard Marc Gasol on the other end, and it didn’t work. Nurkic gave zero help on any other players on the court — on screens or on drives. Instead, he allowed Tony Allen to score by bear hugging Gasol down low.

This is a tough year to be looking to sell a big man, as about a third of the league is looking to move on from one of their young posts. With other options like Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel, Greg Monroe among others available on the market, the Nuggets will have a difficult time finding any value in return for the third-year pro. Nurkic will be shopped, and could be an attractive piece as part of a larger deal in which the Nuggets unload some of their bigger contracts at the trade deadline.

Living in the midst of a rebuild means no names are safe from trade chatter. Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari, the two mainstays in Denver since the Melo trade, have heard their names called in trade rumors almost once a month. Chandler’s name has resurfaced yet again, this time with reports of Chandler wanting out of Denver this February before the trade deadline.

This deadline provides an opportunity for the Nuggets, without too much risk involved. The Nuggets do not have to be sellers or buyers, they have enough pieces to tinker with on this roster to improve and make the playoffs, and aren’t trying to ship away veterans in a wholesale youth movement. Instead, GM Tim Connelly can wait for the right deals to present themselves for the Nuggets. Chandler may be the one name worth trading due to his aggravation around changing roles and a lack of lineup consistency.

Kenneth Faried has seen his name on the trade block for several years. The Nuggets have tried him in so many styles and at multiple positions, and nothing seems to be fitting for Faried. As the starting power forward, he struggled to provide spacing necessary for any center the team started. At center, Faried marks out as one of the worst defenders in the league.

When the Nuggets switched to their new point offense, Faried found himself a lonely man. A big man that thrives in transition as a finisher and as a ball handler, the new system requires him to be a playmaker in the half court. Without that outside stroke, teams drop off Faried to mask any passing lanes and isolate him on the perimeter. The uncomfortable Faried can botch several possessions when defenses are keyed into him on the perimeter.

Faried is due $26.7 million over the next two seasons, a modest deal that becomes even more reasonable as each day goes by. Faried isn’t tricky to trade due to his contract. His style is one that needs certain personnel surrounding him to be truly maximized — shooting big men and rim protectors, other up-tempo players and a coach willing to let the Manimal loose on the offensive glass. There’s got to be a team out there, though the Nuggets are losing bargaining power as each day goes by when looking to make a deal.

Gallinari, Will Barton and Jameer Nelson all have relevance on this year’s Nuggets squad. Gallo is the versatile 3 or 4 that could be their best and most consistent scorer. Barton is instant offense off the bench and is a de facto secondary ball handler that can run the point while Murray and/ or Harris cut off the ball. In those groupings, Barton can guard a wing while the other small guard jumps on the point guard. Nelson steadies the team’s presence in whatever role they need him, and his veteran savvy in the backcourt has kept the Nuggets in many games this year.

Connelly is dealing with a roster of immense offensive talent, and he and Michael Malone try to sift this group into a cohesive unit that does end up playing something resembling defense. Part of that process is weeding out which players will fit long-term plans on offense around the team’s top young player in Jokic. The next part is developing the remaining talent to fit, as well as shipping out the ones that don’t.

All these tasks sound easier than they are. Defensive lapses are deep-seeded and won’t reach a high enough level to compensate for Jokic’s lack of rim protection for several years. Shopping guys like Chandler and Faried for pieces that fit their desired style and fit into their unique cap situation bears various complications. Denver is probably a year or so away from truly competing in the West. Make no mistake: the past three months have seen more positive growth for this franchise in a long time.

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